FairFuelUK warns UK diesel could top £2 a litre as refining crunch deepens

FairFuelUK says UK diesel prices are likely to rise sharply as global refining capacity tightens, even if crude oil stays stable. The group is urging the government to act after warning that diesel could move into the 195p-205p range, and eventually above £2 a litre, without intervention.

Why it matters: - Diesel is the commercial fuel for haulage, deliveries, farming and much of the wider supply chain. - FairFuelUK says higher diesel pump prices would hit motorists, hauliers, small businesses and consumer inflation. - The warning comes as UK diesel remains around 190p a litre and reserve cover stands at just 23-26 days. - FairFuelUK says more than 40 countries have already acted with fuel tax cuts, subsidies or price caps, while the UK has not.

What happened: - FairFuelUK warned on September 9, 2026, that UK diesel prices are set to rise sharply because global refining capacity is failing to keep up with demand. - The campaign group said diesel prices are rising because refineries cannot produce enough fuel, not because crude oil is expensive. - Howard Cox, FairFuelUK founder, said the diesel refining crunch is the real threat and warned UK pump prices could surge without urgent action. - Cox said diesel could pass £2 a litre if the government does not intervene.

The details: - FairFuelUK pointed to Russian refining capacity being down about 30% because of strikes. - The group said Russian diesel exports have been curtailed. - FairFuelUK said Persian Gulf refinery throughput is down about 30% because of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. - The campaign said Europe already had a long-term diesel deficit before the latest supply squeeze. - Global refining margins are at four-year highs, according to the International Energy Agency. - FairFuelUK said UK diesel could move into the 195p-205p a litre range if the refining crunch worsens. - The group said UK reserve cover is only 23-26 days. - FairFuelUK called for a freeze on Fuel Duty for the lifetime of this Parliament. - The group also wants a targeted diesel duty reduction. - FairFuelUK is pressing for immediate implementation of PumpWatch. - The campaign wants a freight resilience plan to protect supply chains.

Between the lines: - The campaign is framing diesel inflation as a structural supply problem rather than a crude-price problem. - That matters because a stable Brent price would not necessarily stop pump prices from rising if refining stays constrained. - The group is also trying to widen the debate beyond fuel costs to the broader cost of living and logistics economy. - FairFuelUK is arguing that the UK is behind other countries that have already used tax cuts or price controls to soften the shock.

What's next: - FairFuelUK will keep pressing ministers to freeze Fuel Duty and cut diesel duty. - The campaign is also pushing for PumpWatch and a wider freight resilience plan. - If global refining outages or shipping disruption worsen, UK diesel prices could climb further toward the £2 a litre threshold. - More pressure is likely on the government to explain why it has not followed other countries with temporary fuel support measures.

The bottom line: - Diesel prices in the UK are being driven by a global refining shortage, and FairFuelUK says the government is running out of time to blunt the impact.