AGP Executive Report

Middle East Energy Shock: Oil jumped to six-week highs as US-Iran strikes and threats around the Strait of Hormuz raised fears of supply disruption, with Brent pushing toward the high-$90s and WTI near $93. Fuel Cost Pressure: The same escalation is feeding into record pump prices in the US, with Labor Day averages cited at $4.15 regular and $5.90 diesel, while local US gas-price trackers show wide weekly swings by grade and county. Regional Policy Ripple: Iran’s plan to set a new “restricted/exclusion” maritime zone and warnings to shipping are keeping traders focused on shipping risk and insurance impacts. Consumer Spending Signal: Travel spending rebounded in August after five months of decline, with Barclays reporting higher card spend with travel agents and hotels/accommodation. Health & Consumer Risk: A Lancet study says 2.7 billion people worldwide, including 767 million children, were exposed to second-hand smoke in 2023, linked to about 1.66 million premature deaths. Edtech Investment (Kuwait/GCC): Kuwait-based Dawraty secured a $2m seed from Qatar Development Bank to expand its bilingual, AI-powered healthcare education platform across Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Jordan.

Middle East consumer & retail momentum: Lagardère Travel Retail is pushing deeper into Saudi airport dining, opening Marché and Sawa concepts at Madinah’s Prince Mohammad bin Abdulaziz International Airport, adding more F&B choice for travelers. Energy affordability pressure: India’s LPG refill booking interval is being cut to 25 days for both urban and rural users as supplies improve, while the wider Middle East conflict continues to strain fuel markets. Gulf shipping risk: Iran plans a new restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and maps for a new corridor through Iranian and Omani waters; shipping traffic through Hormuz remains far below normal. Automotive in the region: Lexus launched the all-new ES in the Middle East with hybrid and a first regional BEV ES 500e option, signaling more electrified luxury demand. Luxury travel draw: Nammos Resort AMAALA officially opens in Saudi Arabia, bringing a full resort and beach-club experience to the Red Sea. Tech/consumer finance angle: Tokinvest in Dubai is tokenizing ownership of a 1,971kg silver bar for eligible investors, turning a physical luxury asset into fractional digital exposure.

Middle East Fuel Shock: Iran-US ship attacks in the Gulf of Hormuz are keeping oil and refined product prices elevated, with Reuters noting an extreme shipping-risk picture as tanker traffic through the strait drops to the lowest since May and fuel-oil shortages loom for ships and power plants. Retail Impact: The same disruption is feeding into higher consumer energy costs, with multiple reports tying record diesel and gasoline levels to Middle East tensions and refinery strain. Regional Trade Signals: South Korea’s exports hit $709.4bn by Sept 5, driven by semiconductors, while exports to the Middle East fell 9.8%—a reminder that conflict risk is already showing up in consumer-linked supply chains. Auto Supply for the Gulf: Nexen Tire will supply OE tires for Hyundai’s new Avante, including Middle East-specific fitments aimed at heat and long-distance driving. Egypt Legal Case: An Egyptian TV host, Sarah Khalifa, was sentenced to death in a major synthetic drug trafficking case, underscoring ongoing consumer-safety and enforcement pressure.

Arabic AI Push: Jordan’s MoDEE and Saudi AI firm HUMAIN signed an MoU at LEAP 2026 to advance Arabic AI models, public-sector AI use, startups, talent, and AI infrastructure—moving from adoption to local development. Jordan Exports Boost: Amman Chamber says exports certified for Iraq hit $585M in the first eight months of 2026, with 1,912 certificates of origin and total covered exports up 20.7% year-on-year. Energy Infrastructure Watch: Cyprus’ Great Sea Interconnector (GSI) is “going ahead as planned” via Cyprus, with EU funding and a note that Cypriot consumers may contribute through electricity bills. Fuel Price Pressure: US-Iran strikes around the Strait of Hormuz are keeping energy costs elevated, with US gasoline around $4.03 on Labor Day and diesel near record levels—raising transport costs for everyday goods. Banking Shake-up (Morocco): Morocco’s banking sector faces deep change as a new banking law adds resolution mechanisms and prepares for neobanks and “super apps.” Travel & Retail Experience: Oman Airports won nine ACI customer experience awards across Muscat and Salalah, highlighting passenger-service upgrades. Luxury Data Risk: A UK luxury diamond merchant (77 Diamonds) is under investigation after a reported breach affecting high-net-worth customers, raising concerns for premium retail security. Tourism Demand Signals: WTM Spotlight Riyadh unveiled its inaugural programme (Sept 8–10) focused on Vision 2030 tourism growth, connectivity, experiences, and tech.

Middle East Energy Shock: US-Iran tensions are pushing fuel costs higher, with Labor Day gasoline prices projected to hit record levels around $4.03–$4.15 a gallon as crude stays above $90 and shipping risks linger around the Strait of Hormuz. Maritime Disruption Watch: UKMTO reported “disabling fire” incidents involving several vessels in the northern Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, urging mariners to stay alert. Oil Retaliation Escalation: The US says it struck three Iranian oil tankers after IRGC ballistic missile attacks on US warships near Hormuz, framing the move as an economic hit to Iran’s oil network. Egypt Economic Reset: Mohamed Maait says Egypt should focus on macro stability and structural reforms after its IMF program ends at end-2026, with continued fiscal-monetary coordination and exchange-rate flexibility. Saudi Enterprise AI Push: Magna AI and Saudi ICT integrator MBUZZ plan to deliver AI infrastructure and transformation services across the Middle East and Africa. Back-to-School Strain in Syria: Damascus families are comparing prices for stationery and school supplies as costs stay high amid economic pressure. Regional Trade Signals: Azerbaijan’s diesel and gasoline shipments to Armenia are sparking price competition discussions online. Banking Spotlight: NBK topped Kuwait’s rankings in The Banker’s Top 100 Arab Banks 2026 list, reinforcing its regional financial strength.

Iraq Banking Stability: The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) reassured depositors that their money is safe, saying guardianship of Al-Taif Islamic Bank is a legal, precautionary step—not proof of bankruptcy—and noting liquid assets exceed 60% of short-term liabilities while deposit insurance covers customers if a bank can’t meet obligations. Travel & Consumer Pressure: With the Middle East conflict still driving energy costs, U.S. motorists are bracing for record Labor Day gasoline prices, with GasBuddy projecting a national average around $4.03 a gallon. Aviation & Premium Services: Turkish Airlines says it will push value-driven growth, including rolling out Premium Economy by 2029, expanding its fleet, and adding routes such as Chengdu and resuming Minsk. Trade Paperwork Boost: Jordan’s Amman Chamber reported certificates of origin for exports rose 20.7% in the first eight months, reaching JD1.031bn, with Iraq the top destination by value. Pet & Home Organizing Trends: New market reports point to continued demand for cat scratchers and budget/office organization products, reflecting consumers’ focus on practical home spending.

Middle East Tourism & Business Climate: Syria’s hotel sector is seeing a cautious rebound, with Damascus properties like the Royal Semiramis and Golden Mazzeh reporting improving occupancy as business travel and Gulf-linked ventures slowly return. Consumer Tech & Retail Demand: Palestine is pitching its wartime resilience to global investors at Saudi Arabia’s LEAP 2026, pushing plans to train 10,000 workers in cloud, AI, cybersecurity and to double tech’s GDP contribution. Automotive & Electronics Market Shift: Chinese brands are gaining ground in Egypt, with automakers now holding over 40% of the passenger car market and smartphone demand rising alongside household appliances. Food Supply & Affordability: Iraq says it hit wheat and date self-sufficiency in 2026, supported by new seed varieties and subsidized irrigation equipment. Energy Prices Hitting Households: Diesel is at record highs in the US, with spillover fears for consumer goods costs—an issue Middle East tensions are also amplifying via shipping and supply risks around Hormuz. Trade & Shipping Pressure: Strait of Hormuz traffic remains well below normal, keeping energy-market nerves high and raising the odds of further cost pressure for downstream goods. Brand & Dealer Engagement: Chery’s LUXEED held a Middle East dealer session focused on premium NEV expansion, product planning and test drives.

Smartphones & Wearables: Motorola’s Edge 70 Plus and a new LTE Moto Watch are set for commercial rollout in Europe and the Middle East, with India getting a separate Edge 70 Neo model. Agri Trade: South Africa has cleared a veterinary health certificate deal to export red meat to Egypt, a potential boost for farmers after major foot-and-mouth disruption. AI for Security Ops: BiomX (Tessera Defense) subsidiary Zorronet launched a no-code builder to let operators connect cameras and sensors into AI autonomous response workflows. Fuel Shock Watch: With Iran war-linked oil volatility, drivers are being warned petrol and diesel could creep up again; US diesel hit a new record $5.85/gal as Hormuz disruption and refinery strain bite. Household Cost Pressure: UK regulators secured compensation for heating-oil customers hit by order cancellations during earlier Middle East-driven price spikes. Retail & Luxury: Chalhoub Group’s brands push deeper into sustainability talks with Global Fashion Agenda, while Li Auto launched its Li L9 in the UAE via Al Fahim. Travel Connectivity: Air Arabia adds a fourth daily Sharjah–Bangkok flight from Oct 25, lifting weekly capacity.

Middle East Consumer Impact: U.S. Vice President JD Vance played down the Iran conflict as “not a war,” while the fighting continues to hit consumer budgets via higher fuel costs and inflation fears. Energy Prices & Daily Costs: GasBuddy spotlights volatile U.S. pump prices, with diesel and premium costs still elevated in multiple counties; the broader driver is Middle East-linked oil and shipping disruption risk. Egypt–China Consumer Market Shift: Egypt’s auto market is moving from tight supply and high prices toward more inventory and more affordable options as Chinese brands expand localized assembly and after-sales support. Trade & Logistics for Goods: China–Egypt port ties are deepening, with Guangzhou–Alexandria container volumes surging year-on-year, supporting faster, steadier movement of consumer goods. Food & Retail Supply: Germany’s chemical and pharma sales got a temporary boost from Iran-linked supply-chain disruptions, but production remains below normal—raising the odds of future price pressure.

China-Egypt Trade Boost: Xi’s Cairo visit spotlights how the Suez Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone has grown into an industrial cluster of nearly 200 firms, ~10,000 jobs and $4.7bn in cumulative investment, expanding beyond factories into solar and circular-economy projects. Turkey Inflation Watch: TurkStat puts Turkey’s August annual inflation at 31.51% (down from July), with transport and housing/utilities still driving monthly price pressure. UAE Energy Tech Push: Ultimate Power Solution says it signed 12+ deals at Middle East Energy 2026, pitching AI/robotics-enabled “smart generators” made in the UAE for GCC and beyond. Saudi Fintech for Micro-Businesses: Nayla raises about $18m pre-Series A to scale AI-powered lending for Saudi micro-merchants. Saudi Mobility & Payments: Syarah secures $12m to expand its online new-and-used car marketplace nationwide; XTransfer gets in-principle approval for a UAE retail payment services licence. Retail & Consumer Markets: Steakholder Foods launches Perfecta™ premium plant-based whole cuts in Northeastern US retail; Beezie partners with The Luxury Closet to bring authenticated luxury goods on-chain. Middle East Tensions Hit Costs: Renewed US-Iran escalation keeps fuel prices elevated, with Germany’s E10 hitting a record €2.21/l and Netherlands reaching €2.66/l. Aviation Network Growth: Air Canada expands Summer 2027 routes, adding year-round Guangzhou and new Europe links plus more frequent Shanghai service.

UAE AI Compliance: Labarna AI says UAE National AI Strategy 2031 will force firms off offshore hyperscaler setups unless they can prove UAE data residency and documented data-flow controls, with the biggest pressure in UAE financial services. Fuel Cost Pressure: Pakistan raised petrol by Rs2.29/litre to Rs346.16 and HSD by Rs1.11 to Rs372.03, blaming Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Travel Retail Hit: Brown-Forman reported Q1 travel retail net sales down 1%, citing Middle East geopolitical headwinds hurting airport passenger traffic. Energy Market Spillover: Oil steadied after a three-day rally as Trump said Iran strikes would be “short-lived,” while Hormuz disruption risk kept prices supported. Regional Support for Food Inputs: The EU approved a €30m Portugal aid scheme for agriculture, fishery and aquaculture firms to offset higher fuel and fertiliser costs tied to the Middle East crisis. Tech/Connectivity in Saudi: stc and Ericsson expanded 5G partnerships in Saudi Arabia, adding to the region’s consumer-facing digital push.

Middle East Security & Consumer Impact: Qatar’s cabinet condemned Iran’s attacks on Jordan, UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait, urging an immediate halt and a return to dialogue—another reminder that regional instability can quickly hit travel, retail supply and everyday costs. Cloud & Connectivity for Businesses: Microsoft confirmed its Saudi Arabia cloud datacentre region will go live in November 2026, while stc and Ericsson signed a multi-year deal to expand Saudi 5G (including a first commercial Ericsson Radio 4496 deployment), supporting faster digital services for consumers. Food Safety & Imports: Geo-Chem India inaugurated a new Food Safety Laboratory in Mumbai to help exporters and regulators meet stricter compliance needs; separately, Armenia exported 60 tons of fish and fish products to the UAE. Payments for Subscriptions: Canva became the first international subscription platform to enable recurring payments in South Africa via Capitec Pay (with EBANX), aiming to reach customers without credit cards. Food Prices Risk: Bloomberg’s Agri index jumped sharply in August as Black Sea disruptions, El Niño and Hormuz-linked energy pressures raise food-crisis concerns. Cyber & Customer Experience: ibex opened a Cairo service delivery center for health, tech and retail CX outsourcing, while ControlMonkey expanded cloud security configuration recovery for major vendors.

Middle East Consumer Impact: The US launched another wave of strikes on Iranian targets, with Iran retaliating, pushing oil higher and reviving inflation worries; the dollar held firm as Treasury yields climbed, and global markets slid on the renewed US-Iran escalation. Iran Economy & Sanctions: Iran’s central bank governor said the financial system is resilient, claiming access to foreign-currency resources and readiness to inject $2bn into FX markets if needed, while Washington’s “Operation Economic Outcast” targets Iran’s financial links. Consumer Prices Watch: South Korea’s August inflation was estimated at 2.5% excluding mobile bill effects, but officials flagged Middle East uncertainty as an upside risk. Retail/Travel Demand: Qatar Airways said it will resume Saudi routes to Qassim, Taif, Yanbu and Tabuk this winter, adding more weekly flights and boosting connectivity for shoppers and travelers. Payments & Workplace Finance: Saudi-focused neobank ABHI received Shariah approval for early wage access, while Abhi’s EWA lets employees tap part of earned salary before payday. Energy Costs at the Pump (US): GasBuddy reports show fuel prices in the US remain volatile, with Middle East tensions repeatedly cited as a driver of crude and gasoline swings.

Saudi Cloud Expansion: Microsoft says its new Azure cloud data centre region in Saudi Arabia East will be available to customers in November, with local hosting for government and private AI workloads and low-latency access. Israel Consumer Safety: A Jerusalem court extended detention of a suspect in the Zol Begadol drugged baby food case; police say sedatives were found in Prinok fruit puree jars sold at two supermarket branches. Middle East Energy Pressure: Global bond markets sold off as Middle East conflict escalated, pushing oil above $92 and raising inflation fears that could lift borrowing costs. Israel Rates & Fuel Costs: Bank of Israel cut its benchmark rate to 3.25%, but gasoline prices jumped to a record NIS 8.25 per liter for 95-octane, adding pressure to consumer prices. UAE Market Snapshot: UAE stock indices rose in August, with healthcare leading gains, while consumer staples lagged. Qatar Satellite Security: Arqit, Es’hailSat and AIEE demonstrated quantum-safe encryption integrated into live satellite communications in Doha. Jordan Banking: Jordan Ahli Bank appointed Ahmad Jaradat as Head of Personal Banking. Thailand Tourism Boost: USS Abraham Lincoln’s port call in Thailand is expected to bring thousands of US service members to Pattaya, with limits on certain recreational activities. Oman Cables Launch: Oman Cables will debut OCI-UltraFlex at Middle East Energy 2026, targeting data centres and high-performance installations.

Middle East Energy Shock: Oil jumped after renewed US-Iran strikes around the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent back above $90 and reviving inflation and rate-hike worries across markets. Travel Tech & Consumer Experience: Sabre was named official ATM Travel Tech Strategic Partner for Arabian Travel Market 2026, highlighting a shift toward agentic AI that can search, book and service trips in real time. Hospitality Demand Shift: Retaj Hotels & Hospitality says the next Middle East hotel growth wave will be driven less by new rooms and more by family-focused experiences, tech-enabled journeys, and stronger human service. Retail & Payments Resilience: QNB Group renewed ISO 22301 business continuity certification, reinforcing uninterrupted service across its network. Premium Food Branding: SanLucar, a premium fruit supplier, is expanding its global blueberry program and China presence as part of a vertically integrated supply push. Tourism Route Building: Delta launched nonstop Atlanta–Riyadh service from Oct 23, aiming to capture business and leisure demand via Saudi Arabia’s growing hub status.

Middle East Energy Shock: Oil prices pushed higher after renewed US-Iran strikes, with Brent topping $91 and diesel crack spreads near $100 as the Strait of Hormuz disruption keeps refined-product supply tight. EU Gas Pressure: Dutch TTF gas jumped above €70/MWh as LNG uncertainty from the Gulf hit Europe’s winter refill plans, with storage still below targets. Consumer Impact Watch: Germany’s inflation rose to 2.9% in August, with energy costs cited as the key driver—an echo of how Middle East tensions feed directly into household bills. Retail Value Moves: Target’s Q2 results highlight price cuts and store traffic gains, while Walmart flagged incremental pressure on consumers from higher fuel costs. Saudi AI Infrastructure: AMD, Cisco and HUMAIN said Instinct MI355X-based AI capacity is now live in Saudi Arabia, with plans to scale up through 2027. Iraq Food Supply Gap: Iraq imported nearly 90,000 tons of potatoes in 2025, underscoring a production-consumption gap and the need for better storage and productivity. Healthcare Tech Growth: Trackerwave targets ₹50 crore revenue in 2026-27 by expanding real-time location systems across India’s public hospitals. Design & Culture: Qatar Museums announced Design Doha 2026 runs 5 Nov 2026–31 Jan 2027, spotlighting MENASA design talent.