AGP Executive Report

Gulf Consumer Shock: Kuwait’s main airport was briefly shut after Iranian drones damaged a passenger terminal, killing 1 and wounding dozens, underscoring how the Iran conflict is hitting travel and everyday costs across the region. US Policy Ripple: The US House approved a war powers resolution to halt military action against Iran, a rare bipartisan rebuke that keeps uncertainty high for energy prices and supply chains. Inflation Pressure: The Fed linked rising US inflation to higher energy costs after the Strait of Hormuz disruption, while in Iran prices are rising “by the hour,” squeezing household budgets. Sanctions & Digital Trade: The US sanctioned Iran’s largest crypto exchange, Nobitex, as part of pressure efforts—another sign of how consumer-facing markets are getting pulled into geopolitics. Hospitality Loyalty Push: Kenya Airways partnered with ALL Accor to let members earn and redeem points across flights and hotels, betting on travel demand despite regional risk. Food & Retail Demand: Türkiye’s fishery production rose 11.1% in 2025, with aquaculture driving output, while Kenya’s tea exports grew 6% in Q1 but face shifting destination risks.

Gulf Travel Disruption: Flydubai cancelled all Kuwait flights after Iranian drones damaged Kuwait International Airport, killing 1 and injuring dozens, while Kuwait’s airport briefly shut and later partially reopened. Retail & Consumer Demand: Inditex’s Zara owner reported a strong start to summer sales, with May currency-adjusted growth of 11.5%, even as Iran-war inflation worries dent confidence; analysts say supply-chain adaptation is helping. Energy Shock on Prices: The EU eased spending rules to give member states fiscal room amid the Middle East-driven energy shock, a move that could shape consumer costs across Europe. Inflation Pressure in the Region: Egypt’s trade deficit widened 48.8% to $4.6bn in March as imports rose faster than exports, with higher petroleum and wheat imports. Payments & Gaming: In the Philippines, PAGCOR warned Middle East tensions and e-wallet delinking could cut 2026 gaming revenues by up to 19%, showing how the conflict is spilling into consumer platforms. E-commerce Expansion: Amazon launched Prime in South Africa with free delivery plus entertainment and gaming benefits, betting on convenience-led shopping. Aviation & Business: Saudia took delivery of its first Airbus A321XLR, extending long-haul reach with a premium onboard upgrade. Sanctions & Tech: US authorities arrested Jamshid Ghomi over alleged supply of US networking and encryption tech to Iran-linked nuclear and military programs.

Middle East Energy Shock: The OECD cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.8% as the Iran-linked war fallout keeps energy, food and fertiliser costs elevated, with a worse 2.1% scenario if disruptions drag into 2027. Household Cost Relief: Japan approved a $19bn emergency extra budget to cushion petrol, electricity and gas bills, while Pakistan’s Power Division said June electricity relief is 20 paisa per unit after tariff adjustments. Fuel Demand Pressure: India’s gasoline and diesel demand outlook is weakening as Iran-war-driven price hikes hit trucking and retailers post daily losses. Regional Consumer Impact: The Kuwait airport was hit by an Iranian drone strike, suspending commercial flights; in the UK, the OECD warned rural areas could face diesel shortages if the conflict continues. MENA Consumer Goods Signals: Türkiye logged record tire exports of $1.9bn in 2025, with passenger car tires leading. Retail & Supply Chains: Dubai supermarkets face mounting pressure as higher freight and fuel costs ripple through grocery logistics and cold-chain delivery. Crypto & Consumer Finance: Ripple’s RLUSD is rolling into Turkey via local partners, as sanctions and volatility reshape payment and investment habits.

Fuel & Inflation Watch: Türkiye cut gasoline and diesel prices after softer oil, but energy costs remain a major inflation driver as the Iran conflict keeps markets jumpy. South Africa Retail Impact: South Africa’s fuel relief is being scaled back, with petrol set to rise from June 3 as Brent climbs on renewed Middle East risk—pressuring transport and everyday prices. Regulator vs Big Oil: Australia’s Commerce Commission will take BP to court over alleged failures to apply advertised discounts and incorrect pricing at BP Connect stations. Consumer Confidence & Cost of Living: Euro zone inflation ticked up to 3.2% in May, with energy still the biggest contributor—another reminder that Middle East shocks flow straight into household bills. Banking & Credit Signals: A Morningstar DBRS note says the Iran war hasn’t materially changed U.S. banks’ reserve-building in Q1, while Europe and Australia were more cautious. Payments & Digital Finance: Ripple expanded its USD-backed RLUSD stablecoin availability in Türkiye via new partners, signaling continued MENA push for regulated digital payments. Retail Tech & Media: Emirates NBD and FAB led an inaugural MEA AI banking index, while a new AI-powered retail product discovery push targets better in-store shopping personalization. Business Demand Under Pressure: U.S. job openings surged in April, but hiring still looks cautious amid Iran-war uncertainty—an indirect read-through for consumer spending.

Green Hydrogen Leadership: Saudi renewables developer ACWA appointed Samir J Serhan as CEO from 1 March, as it pushes forward on Neom’s green hydrogen/ammonia complex and a 4GW Yanbu hub. Tobacco Awareness: Abu Dhabi’s National Rehabilitation Center launched a World No Tobacco Day campaign targeting youth and warning about harms from cigarettes, vapes and e-cigarettes. Energy & Consumer Supply Chains: Japan warned naphtha shortages tied to Middle East disruption could hit everyday goods from plastics to medical supplies, while Japanese snack makers shifted to black-and-white packaging to cope with ink supply instability. Retail & Consumer Pressure: Northern Ireland consumer confidence fell to a three-year low as energy costs from the Middle East conflict squeeze household budgets. Packaging & FMCG Cost Control: Middle East crisis is pushing firms to cut colors and plastic use in packaging, with knock-on effects for product availability and presentation. Corporate Pricing Power Watch: Reuters found only one-third of euro zone large firms plan to raise prices in response to the Iran war, suggesting weaker demand is limiting pass-through. Oil Shock Economics: Reports estimate the Iran war could cost US households about $750 each, with fuel-price volatility feeding broader inflation fears. Tech for Retail/Industry: AVEVA and AWS announced a multi-year cloud collaboration to speed industrial intelligence adoption, while Vadzo Imaging launched USB 3.2 Gen 2x2 UVC cameras for embedded vision use cases. Market Volatility: South Korea’s KOSPI slid on Iran-war-linked inflation fears even as AI optimism drove sharp swings.

Consumer Sentiment Watch: The Conference Board says U.S. consumer confidence slipped in May as inflation expectations rose and recession worries grew, with the survey period overlapping the Middle East price shock. Retail & Pricing Scrutiny: The UK competition regulator found no proof fuel retailers changed pricing to exploit the Middle East crisis, but warned weak competition could still keep drivers paying more. Energy Costs Ripple: With Iran-U.S. talks fraying and Strait of Hormuz risk back in focus, oil jumped and JetBlue lifted its jet-fuel price forecast, citing higher Brent-linked costs. Loyalty & Banking Meets Retail: Aura, Alshaya’s loyalty program, won Best Strategic Partnership in Global Loyalty with NBK and The Avenues—Kuwait, highlighting more reward redemption tied to everyday banking. AI for Shopping: Nayax launched AI-powered product discovery and personalization for retailers, aiming to unify online and in-store recommendations. Regional Trade/Production: Kazakhstan’s Turkistan region reported strong melon and watermelon harvests, with exports to Russia underway and prior exports to Iran up sharply. Defense Expo Fallout: France barred Israel’s official participation in Eurosatory, limiting Israeli defense firms to air-defense displays only.

Tourism Pressure: The Iran-war fuel shock is hitting tourism-dependent Southeast Asia, with higher jet fuel costs and ceasefire uncertainty driving flight cancellations and pricier tickets, thinning crowds and squeezing local livelihoods. Retail & Consumer Costs: Japan plans June price hikes on 1,078 food items (including seasonings and instant noodles), citing higher ingredient, distribution, and packaging costs tied to Middle East turmoil. Fuel Price Relief (Philippines): Manila’s DOE set June 2 pump rollbacks—diesel down at least P9.26/l, gasoline down at least P4.76/l, kerosene down at least P10.86/l—while LPG rises about P3.41/kg. Gulf Consumer Tech & Media: ME Group warns of a slump in selfies/passport-photo demand as Middle East conflict dents confidence, cutting profit expectations. E-commerce/Travel Disruption (UK): easyJet says any Castlelake takeover talk would be “highly opportunistic,” noting Iran-war impacts on jet fuel and customer confidence. Food & Lifestyle (Turkey): Türkiye pushes “Turkish caviar” via sturgeon farming expansion for global exports. Business Ops: Singapore SMEs are urged to adopt sustainability to cope with war-driven cost spikes and planning uncertainty.

Retail & trade momentum: Saudi Arabia’s wholesale and retail trade operating revenue index rose 7.3% in Q1 2026, with retail (ex-motor vehicles) up 9.5% and wholesale (ex-motor vehicles) up 5.5%, alongside higher employee compensation. Food safety & fraud: UK regulators flagged dodgy meat and fish supply chains after DNA tests found undeclared species in 73 products, including goat meat containing mutton. Digital real estate investing: Egypt’s FRA cut Misr for Central Clearing, Depository and Registry (MCDR) fees for participants in digital platforms selling real estate investment fund certificates, aiming to lower costs and boost access. Consumer finance hit by conflict: Markets and households remain pressured by Middle East-driven energy costs and inflation persistence, with central banks holding steady as oil-linked price pressures feed into everyday spending. Energy logistics: Zanzibar received its first direct Saudi fuel shipment (36 million litres), targeting a month of demand and aiming to reduce future fuel costs if regional conditions stabilize. Maritime security: The US said it disabled ships attempting to breach the Hormuz blockade, while reports note many large tankers have escaped the bottleneck with US-provided guidance.

Water Disruption: South East Water says supplies are back for most of 15,500 Kent customers, but hundreds still face no tap water and about 3,600 may see low pressure or intermittent supply amid high demand during hot weather. Loyalty & Retail Tech: Qatar’s loyalty apps are expanding across airlines, telecoms, banking, food delivery and malls, turning points into app-driven personalised offers as the region’s loyalty market is projected to keep growing. Fuel Price Pressure: India’s finance ministry warns retail inflation could rise as fuel hikes and weak monsoon rains feed transport, energy and food costs, with Strait of Hormuz disruption still the key swing factor. Oil Relief Not Guaranteed: Tanzania’s economists say falling crude won’t quickly cut pump prices because transport, insurance, taxes and other charges shape final costs. Travel Fallout: A UK investigation looks at whether summer holidays face cancellations, route changes and higher costs as Strait of Hormuz tensions keep jet fuel prices volatile. Hormuz Blockade & Sanctions: The US says it disabled another Gambia-flagged vessel trying to breach its blockade of Iranian ports, while fresh sanctions target Iran-linked oil and petrochemical trade networks—raising uncertainty for regional consumers and supply chains. Consumer Cost Squeeze: Moody’s estimates US households have paid about $60bn extra in energy costs since the Iran war began, with gasoline and diesel driving the hit. Middle East Tourism Lift: Jordan’s ministry says low-cost flights resume July 1, aiming to boost tourist arrivals and support the “Ahlan Jordan” platform. Gulf Consumer Impact: Qatar’s defense minister signals a temporary maritime toll in Hormuz could be acceptable only if used to clear explosives, stressing it affects consumers. Corporate/Industry: Germany’s chemical industry reports a short-term boost from Iran-war-related stockpiling, but warns it’s not a lasting recovery. Local Food & Retail: Costco reports record gasoline volumes as price-sensitive drivers chase bargains amid ongoing Middle East-driven supply and pricing swings.

Retail Real Estate in Qatar: ValuStrat says Qatar’s retail market stayed broadly stable in Q1 2026, with 5.7m sqm GLA total and organised retail at 2.5m sqm, while unorganised retail added about 6,250 sqm, helped by major events and new brand openings. Modular Construction Deal (GCC): EcoModular signed an MoU with Riyadh-based IDS and Latvia’s Modul Consult to jointly market and deliver modular building services across the region, with possible deeper alignment later. US-Iran Sanctions Hit Oil & Petrochemicals: The US announced new sanctions targeting Iran’s oil and petrochemical transport network, including eight entities and blocked vessels, as part of “maximum pressure.” Hormuz/Prices Spillover: Oil slipped below $87 on ceasefire hopes, but the broader consumer hit is still showing—energy and supply-chain stress is feeding into costs across goods. Food Cost Pressure (UK): Gluten-free bread is getting pricier, with shoppers saying a decent small loaf is nearing £4, turning medical staples into “luxury” items. Middle East Supply Shock on Consumer Goods: Japan’s ethylene plants ran at a record low in April as naphtha supply disruptions linked to the Middle East tightened inputs, pushing up costs for downstream consumer products. Gold in the Gulf: Dubai retail gold held steady around AED 541.25/g for 24K and AED 509.50/g for 22K on May 30, supported by regional risk sentiment. Iraq Food Habits Shift: In Iraq, families are increasingly making homemade yogurt, cheese, juices and tomato paste as concerns grow over preservatives and processed foods.

Middle East Shipping Risk: Chevron CEO Mike Wirth says multiple vessels have been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz this week, warning shipowners that the danger remains even if a peace deal lands. Energy Prices & Consumer Impact: Oil is set for its biggest monthly drop in years as Iran-US ceasefire hopes grow, but airlines and households may not see relief immediately; Southwest’s CEO says fare increases may stick despite fuel easing. Retail Fuel Bargains: Costco reports record gas volumes as consumers hunt lower prices amid Middle East-driven supply and price shocks. Inflation Pressure Across Markets: Germany’s inflation slowed to 2.6% in May after a fuel tax cut, but analysts warn the effect may fade if the Middle East conflict keeps feeding broader costs. Sanctions & Supply Chains: The US expanded sanctions targeting Iran’s “shadow oil economy,” including entities and vessels tied to oil and petrochemicals. Consumer Confidence & Spending: ECB research warns the Iran war could “doubly scar” euro-area consumers, while UK aviation regulators urge passengers to know their rights amid possible summer disruption. Food & Packaging Trends: Tetra Pak highlights shifting consumer expectations for more value, healthier benefits, and shelf-stable packaging as oil and geopolitics raise costs. Africa Aviation Fuel Shift: Nigeria’s Dangote refinery became the world’s top jet fuel exporter in April, with Middle East disruptions reshaping global aviation fuel routes. Local Household Squeeze (South Africa): Markets brace for a possible Sarb rate hike as energy costs and inflation risks intensify, threatening higher mortgage and credit repayments.

Oil & Fuel Relief Watch: With optimism around a potential 60-day US-Iran ceasefire extension, Philippine diesel is projected to fall ₱6.50–₱7.50/l and gasoline ₱3.50–₱4.50/l ahead of June 1 adjustments, while broader markets also see easing crude pressure. Sanctions Tighten on Iran Trade: The US rolled out fresh sanctions targeting firms, vessels and individuals tied to Iran’s oil and petrochemical exports, plus curbs on a newly created Iranian shipping authority linked to Strait of Hormuz transit. Consumer Impact Research: ECB analysis warns euro zone households may be hit by a “double scar” as Iran-war energy shocks compound lingering Ukraine-era stress, pushing consumers to focus more on prices even when inflation is near target. Retail Pricing Pressure: A retailer CEO in Australia says businesses that raise prices in a high-inflation environment risk going broke as war-driven fuel costs squeeze budgets. Digital Payments in Saudi: Dinero Pay expanded payment infrastructure for Saudi merchants, adding support for mobile wallets and local BNPL options. MENA Consumer Health & Goods: Recce Pharmaceuticals signed a term sheet to distribute its R327 topical gel for diabetic foot infections across parts of MENA, while Egypt’s EV sales momentum continues to build. Trade & Fashion Diversification: Türkiye’s ready-to-wear exporters are shifting toward new markets as Europe demand softens, with Iraq highlighted as a standout.

Energy Security & Consumer Impact: The IEA says the Middle East conflict and effective Strait of Hormuz closure are reshaping global energy investment, pushing diversification of routes and sources—an outlook that feeds directly into higher household costs and tighter spending. Inflation Pressure: US inflation hit a three-year high in April as Iran-war energy shocks lifted petrol and broader prices, raising fears of sustained cost-of-living strain. Market Volatility: Traders struggled to read mixed Iran-US signals as oil swung on strikes, ceasefire-extension talk, and sanctions moves—keeping consumer-facing prices and business planning jittery. Middle East Retail & Supply Chains: Toyota reported April exports to the Middle East plunged 91.7% y/y, underlining how conflict risk is hitting consumer goods flows. Local Consumer Life: Egypt’s Eid Al-Adha holiday surge is overloading ride-hailing platforms, while the World Bank warns developing-economy inflation could top 5% as energy, food and fertilizer costs rise. Renewables Demand: Egypt’s rooftop solar momentum is growing, with listed panel prices varying by capacity and excluding key installation components. Food & Boycotts: A New York Park Slope Food Co-op boycott of Israeli products triggered discrimination complaints and legal threats, spilling into consumer-brand and grocery politics. Tech & Payments: Temu was fined in the EU over illegal products, a reminder that cross-border consumer marketplaces face tougher compliance scrutiny.

Middle East Energy Shock: Oil jumped after renewed Persian Gulf attacks and fresh US sanctions targeting Iran’s Strait of Hormuz shipping control, keeping ceasefire hopes fragile and feeding inflation fears. Consumer Cost Pressure: A report warns everyday groceries and home/personal care items could get pricier (and sometimes shrink in size) as raw material costs rise, with further hikes likely in food and HPC. Market Mood & Confidence: Analysts say a longer ceasefire could lift consumer confidence, but signals remain mixed as negotiations drag on. Retail & Travel Hit: US consumers are already feeling higher fuel and food costs, with grocery inflation expected to worsen into 2027. Local Consumer Squeeze (South Africa): With the SARB expected to raise rates, households face tighter budgets, higher debt servicing, and weaker homebuying appetite. Auto Trade Disruption: Toyota said exports to the Middle East fell 91.7% in April, reflecting conflict-linked demand and logistics strain. Eid Shopping in Egypt: Eid al-Adha retail activity is holding up despite inflation, with shoppers still spending on clothing and essentials.

Energy Cost Shock: Britain’s Ofgem price cap is set to lift typical dual-fuel bills by about £221 a year (around £18 a month) from July 1, with officials linking the jump to Middle East-linked wholesale gas volatility and Hormuz shipping risks. Retail & Consumer Pressure: U.S. consumer confidence dipped as Iran-war price shocks persist, while American Airlines said travel demand stays strong even as jet fuel costs rise—an uneven picture for household budgets. Fuel Prices, Everywhere: GasBuddy spotlights week-ending May 16 bargains and spikes across the U.S., with regular as low as $3.54 in one county and diesel lows around $4.89, underscoring how Middle East tensions keep feeding into local pump prices. Boycott Politics in Groceries: Park Slope Food Co-op voted to boycott Israeli products after a heated meeting, with members backing a simpler voting threshold for future boycotts. Brand & Customer Trust: StandWithUs urged Alo Yoga to investigate reports of customers receiving empty packages with anti-Israel/anti-Jewish messages. Online Commerce Fraud: An Amazon customer says he lost $2,000 after two Garmin watch deliveries arrived empty. Regional Market Watch: A Middle Eastern grocery retailer (Cozmo One) is reportedly seeking a new Ashburn Village Shopping Center location.

Energy Bills Shock: UK regulator Ofgem confirmed a 13% jump to the energy price cap from July 1, adding about £18/month for a typical dual-fuel household (gas +24%, electricity +5%), as Iran-war-linked fuel and gas volatility keeps pressure on wholesale markets. Consumer Mood: In the US, Conference Board confidence slipped to 93.1 in May as high gas prices and inflation eroded purchasing power, even while stocks hit fresh records. Oil & Hormuz Risk: Markets bounced after US strikes on Iran dimmed hopes for reopening the Strait of Hormuz; Brent clawed back toward $100 as shipping fears returned. Retail Resilience (UK): Hollywood Bowl said Brits are cutting back on shopping but still spending on affordable leisure, reporting revenue growth despite the confidence crunch. Shipping/Trade (India-Iran): India secured the release of 10 merchant navy sailors detained in Iran since July 2025. Local Flashpoint (US): Brooklyn’s Park Slope Food Coop voted to remove Israeli products after a long, divisive boycott fight.