ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – August 2026

18 September 2026

Compared with July 2026:

• median consumer perceptions of inflation over the past 12 months were unchanged, while median expectations for inflation increased across all horizons;
• expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months were unchanged, as were expectations for spending growth over the next 12 months;
• expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months were unchanged, while the expected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time decreased;
• expectations for growth in the price of homes over the next 12 months were unchanged, as were expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months’ time.

Inflation

In August the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months was 3.5%, the same as in July. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months increased to 3.0% from 2.9% in July, while median expectations for inflation three years ahead increased to 2.9% from 2.7% in July and median expectations for inflation five years ahead increased to 2.5% from 2.4% in July. Uncertainty about expectations for inflation over the next 12 months decreased, but remained higher than the level prevailing before the start of the conflict in the Middle East. Respondents in the bottom income quintile continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations, on average, than those in the top quintile. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (aged 35-54 and 55-70).

Income and consumption

Consumers’ expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months were unchanged at 1.0%. As in previous months, expectations were on average higher in the bottom income quintile (1.7%) than in the top quintile (0.7%). Perceived nominal spending growth over the previous 12 months increased in August to 5.2% from 5.1% in July, while expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months remained unchanged at 3.6%.

Economic growth and labour market

Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months were unchanged at -1.2% in August. Expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead decreased to 11.0% from 11.2% in July. As observed in previous months, households in the bottom income quintile expected the highest unemployment rate 12 months ahead (13.4%), while households in the top income quintile expected the lowest rate (9.4%). Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.5%), suggesting a broadly stable labour market outlook.

Housing and credit access

Consumers expected the price of their home to increase by 3.4% over the next 12 months, unchanged from June. As in previous months, expectations for home price growth over the next 12 months remained on average higher in the lowest income quintile (4.0%) than in the highest income quintile (3.2%). Expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months’ time were also unchanged from July, at 4.9%. As in previous months, households in the top income quintile expected the lowest mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead (4.4%), while those in the bottom quintile expected the highest rates (5.7%). The net percentage of households reporting a tightening (relative to those reporting an easing) of access to credit over the previous 12 months declined compared with July, as did the net percentage of households expecting tighter credit conditions over the next 12 months (relative to those expecting an easing).

The release of the Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) results for September is scheduled for 23 October 2026.

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