AGP Executive Report

Retail & Household Spend: Saudi Arabia’s consumer spending stayed near $3.8bn in the week to Aug 22, but education-related transactions jumped 133.9% week on week, signaling a back-to-school boost for retailers and services. Energy Costs & Consumer Impact: The Iran war’s six-month disruption continues to hit everyday budgets, with U.S. heating and gasoline pressures still visible as oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain volatile and U.S. reserves fall to the lowest since 1982. LNG Supply Disruption: QatarEnergy extended force majeure on five LNG cargoes to Italy’s Edison, pushing Edison to replace 21 cargoes—another reminder that Middle East tensions can quickly spill into consumer-facing energy prices. Trade & Sanctions Pressure: U.S. moves to target Iran-linked dollar access and banking ties raise the risk of wider knock-on effects for regional trade partners, with Iraq highlighted as a potential model for how Washington could squeeze partners without fully collapsing allies’ economies. Banking & Payments: Syria’s removal from a terrorism designation is expected to ease SWIFT access and unlock more banking and remittance flows, while Pakistan and Saudi Arabia also agreed to expand cooperation in agriculture, water management and food security.

Energy Cost Shock: UK heating-oil customers hit by Iran-war price spikes and cancelled orders are set to receive compensation after the CMA said suppliers agreed to a redress process, with around 800 already notified and more to follow. Inflation Pressure: Spain’s inflation jumped to 4.3% in August, driven mainly by higher fuel prices, while the government keeps diesel tax relief on track. Middle East Consumer Impact: Northern Ireland’s Consumer Council warned households could face a “very serious situation” this winter as SSE Airtricity announced a 19% gas tariff rise from October, pushing average bills higher amid US-Iran conflict energy strain. Retail & Travel Retail: Sol de Janeiro is rolling out a long-term “Make Life Cheirosa” activation at Antalya Airport with ATÜ Duty Free and L’OCCITANE Travel Retail, blending experiential retail and digital engagement. Appliance Demand Headwind: China’s Haier Smart Home, Supor and Robam reported profit and revenue declines in H1, citing higher costs and weaker demand amid broader geopolitical pressures. Oil Market Watch: Hormuz reopening hopes lifted oil at times, but shipping remains constrained and fuel markets stay under strain.

Middle East Trade Pressure: Iran is scrambling to sustain trade as the UAE suspends ties and the US threatens secondary sanctions under “Operation Economic Outcast,” leaving Tehran with fewer partners and raising uncertainty for consumer-facing supply chains. Gulf Energy Flows: Hormuz crude and LNG flows are creeping higher as Gulf producers ramp up exports, but the risk picture stays fragile; Iran also claims oil deliveries continue despite a US naval blockade. Retail & Travel Retail Impact: Pernod Ricard reports travel retail sales down 3% in FY26, with Middle East conflict weighing on results even as China duty-free rebounds. Payments & Consumer Access: Syria marks its first international card payments in over 15 years after Visa and Mastercard processing begins, a potential boost for tourism and everyday commerce. Consumer Sentiment: A survey shows consumer sentiment in the region edging up, but still far below pre-conflict levels, signaling ongoing cost-of-living pressure. Air & Logistics Costs: Maersk hikes fuel surcharges as Middle East costs rise, adding pressure to prices and delivery times. Tech for the Region: Microsoft and HUMAIN expand Arabic enterprise AI in Saudi Arabia, while Amazon shuts down Mechanical Turk—both shaping how brands and consumers engage digitally.

UAE Travel & Connectivity: Air Arabia will start daily non-stop Sharjah–Düsseldorf flights from 16 Dec 2026, adding a third German destination and boosting Gulf–Europe links. Iran War & Consumer Impact: Six months into the US-Iran conflict, analysts call it a costly stalemate as sanctions and oil pressure reshape energy, currencies and food inflation risks. Gulf Oil Flows: Kuwait and Qatar are restoring more Hormuz crude exports, easing some war-risk pricing even as diplomacy remains fragile. Energy & Household Bills: India’s new LPG connections are suspended as distributors prioritize refills and run e-KYC checks; cooking gas prices are unchanged for now. Iraq Fuel Supply: Iraq’s Kurdistan Region faces gasoline shortages; parliament discusses a plan to allocate 50,000 bpd of locally produced crude to stabilize supplies. Egypt Tourism Pricing: Egypt sets minimum hotel price floors to curb ultra-low discounting and push service quality upgrades. Saudi Gold Demand: The World Gold Council says Saudi Arabia’s gold market is strengthening on investment and consumer activity. Retail & Consumer Goods: Dollar stores in the US beat sales estimates as shoppers trade down to cheaper essentials amid economic uncertainty. Turkey Pharma: Turkey opens an antitrust probe into Teva over claims it blocked rivals in generic drugs.

Online Fraud Alert (Kuwait): Jahra Security says an Arab expatriate lost KD 500 after shopping on an untrusted website; the site took bank details and later withdrew the money in five separate transactions, prompting a warning to verify online stores before entering payment info. Trade & Payments (Syria): Syria’s rescission from the State Sponsor of Terrorism list is expected to ease banking barriers and help more Western, Arab and Turkish banks reconnect, with officials saying SWIFT-linked flows could improve once compliance and banking upgrades are in place. Iran Trade Boost (Iran–EAEU): Iran’s Trade Development Organization reports Iran–Eurasian Economic Union trade rose 22% to $7.3bn over the past year, with a push to grow industrial and high-value exports alongside agriculture. Aviation Consumer Impact (Qantas): Qantas posted its lowest pre-tax profit in four years at $2.06bn, blaming a $610m jet-fuel hit tied to the US–Iran conflict, even as it highlighted improved customer metrics and ongoing fleet investment. Energy Pressure (US fuel prices): GasBuddy price reports across multiple US counties show continued volatility in diesel and gasoline, with Middle East shipping disruption cited as a key driver behind higher fuel costs.

Iraq Power Crunch: Iraq’s electricity minister will face lawmakers next week as the country generates about 22,000 MW but only ~10,000 MW reaches consumers, with the rest lost to informal settlements, malls, factories and unauthorized grid use—losses blamed on waste and corruption. Iran Currency Shock: The Iranian rial hit a record low versus the US dollar as sanctions and war pressure fuel inflation, with essentials like potatoes, chicken, cooking oil and insulin sharply more expensive. Dubai Travel Resilience: Dubai International Airport says it will keep its “world’s busiest” crown despite a 42% drop in Q2 passengers, expecting a rebound as airlines restore routes. Shein IPO Interest in the GCC: Analysts say institutional demand for Shein’s Hong Kong listing is strong, with GCC investors showing more appetite than retail so far. Mobility Funding: Egypt-born Swvl raised $13m to expand in the US and add lending for transport operators. Hormuz Watch for Consumers: Oil prices slid on Iran-Oman talks about a temporary shipping corridor, a reminder that regional disruptions quickly feed into energy costs. Retail & Foodservice Moves: John Lewis is rolling out its Platter restaurant concept across stores, betting hospitality is a growing part of shopping baskets.

Iran Sanctions & Shipping Shock: The US escalated its “economic D-Day” push on Iran, warning countries and traders that do business with Tehran could face punishment, as Iran rejects the campaign and points to Strait of Hormuz disruption; the fallout is already showing up in energy costs and consumer sentiment. Hormuz Blacklist Impact: Iran’s PGSA flagged 45 “non-compliant” vessels, including two India-linked ships, warning of fines, seizure or confiscation—another reminder that cross-border fuel logistics are now a consumer issue. Fuel Prices at the Pump: GasBuddy price reports across the US week ending Aug. 15 show premium, midgrade, E15 and diesel deals varying sharply by county, with the broader driver tied back to Middle East-linked oil shipment disruptions. Retail & Travel Pressure: Helloworld reported FY26 growth in transactional value and EBITDA, but statutory profit was hit by Middle East conflict impacts and a Webjet fair value loss. Food & Labeling Debate: India’s food warning-label approach is under scrutiny after regulators backed away from colourful front-of-pack warnings, raising questions about how consumers interpret packaged food. Startup/Consumer Tech: Israel-founded AI security firm Alice raised $140M to help keep AI systems from being manipulated—aimed at protecting users as AI moves deeper into everyday services. Local Culinary Education: Iranian chef Shekoh Moossavi is opening a culinary institute in San Francisco with Persian and European classes, plus online chocolate workshops.

Iran Sanctions Shock: China and Qatar hit back at expanded US sanctions on Iran, while markets weigh “Operation Economic Outcast” and Tehran vows retaliation; the rial slid to fresh lows and reports of fuel shortages and long lines in Tehran underline consumer pressure. Energy & Prices: Oil eased below $90 as investors priced in less-than-full conflict risk, but the broader Middle East tension keeps a lid on relief for everyday costs. Retail & Consumer Goods: India dropped colour-coded front-of-pack food warning labels after industry pushback, with the Supreme Court scrutinising the regulator’s approach—an issue that could reshape how consumers read sugar, salt and fat. Food & Agriculture: Chattogram’s “Kanchan Guava” is already pulling in Tk 6cr and shipping to Gulf markets, showing how Middle East demand is boosting regional farm incomes. Business Moves: UL Solutions expanded its Italy site into a European Retail Center of Excellence, while Maris-Tech booked a $280k order for Peridot Night day/thermal systems for observation and terrain dominance. Trade Links: Armenia and Iran discussed expanding cooperation in trade, investment, energy and logistics, including long-term diesel and LPG supply.

Sanctions Shock: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent rolled out “Operation Economic Outcast,” a sweeping push to isolate Iran by targeting oil, shipping, procurement and digital assets—while warning countries and firms that keep doing business with Tehran could face secondary sanctions, raising fresh worries about spillovers to global trade and especially China, a major buyer of Iranian oil. Shipping & Food Costs: UN chief António Guterres warned that maritime chokepoints are becoming “collateral damage,” with Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb disruptions slowing shipping, lifting container rates and feeding into higher food and fertiliser costs. Hormuz Tensions: Iran reiterated threats around Strait of Hormuz transit rules and possible fees, as traffic reportedly plunges and oil-route uncertainty keeps energy prices jumpy. Consumer Pulse (Beauty): L’Oréal Brandstorm 2026 jury Karine Lebret said fragrance is driving Gen Z virality, with Middle East-inspired layering rituals emerging as a global trend. Energy Prices (US): GasBuddy reports showed volatile US fuel pricing week ending Aug. 15, with notable lows in midgrade, premium and diesel across multiple counties, reflecting ongoing Middle East-driven oil and shipping pressure. Maritime Security: A Somali piracy case involving a Turkish-linked cargo ship remains murky, with unconfirmed reports of further attacks and ransom demands.

Fuel & cost pressure: Jordan says fuel prices will rise again from Aug. 25, citing Middle East tensions and weaker prospects for Strait of Hormuz normalization, with diesel, gasoline and kerosene set to jump. Pharma & local supply: Iraq’s Samarra state pharma firm says it has started local production of moxifloxacin, aiming to cut reliance on imports and support the Health Ministry. Retail experience shift: A new IWSR read says “premiumisation” in beverages is changing as inflation distorts value growth—consumers want meaningful moments and justified upgrades, not just higher prices. Saudi consumer tech & tourism: Saudi Arabia’s MBS is in France for talks with Macron expected to cover health, transport and energy, with a reported Dragon Ball-themed amusement park deal in the mix. Food industry push: Saudi Arabia will unite The Saudifood Show and Saudifood Manufacturing in Jeddah (Sept 27–29) to boost food security, manufacturing and trade. Digital payments funding: Fasset, a Dubai-licensed stablecoin neobank, raises $68m Series C at a $1bn valuation to expand its Own Network and AI routing. Vehicle safety recall: Saudi Arabia recalls 84,639 Toyota Camry (2025–2026) over instrument panel issues that could disable warnings and alerts. Energy security & sanctions risk: Oil slips as markets await new US sanctions on Iran, keeping Hormuz uncertainty and supply-route claims in focus.

Food Safety Crackdown: Bahrain’s Industry and Commerce Ministry fined one person BD100,000 and jailed four others (6 months to 1 year) for selling expired, spoiled and adulterated food after repackaging and changing expiry dates, with offenders also facing deportation and confiscation of tools and goods. Energy Prices & Retail Impact: Fuel costs remain tightly linked to Middle East conflict and shipping risks; New Zealand retail sales volumes fell 0.5% in the June 2026 quarter, with fuel retailing down 13% in volume terms once price effects are stripped out. Oil-Price Spillover to Consumer Goods: Australia’s Ampol reported a near five-fold jump in interim profit to a record A$857.2m, citing Middle East-driven refining margin gains, and announced a much higher interim dividend. Consumer Products Innovation: NO Nature expanded its nitric-oxide beverage brand All Naerigo, positioning the plant-based drink for vascular health. Tech & Consumer Spending Mood: Asia markets were flat as investors awaited Nvidia results, while broader consumer sentiment and inflation expectations stayed in focus. Retail Tech Push: A new mobile clienteling and in-store checkout push targets APAC retailers as shoppers increasingly research and compare before entering stores.

Energy & Cost of Living: Ofgem is set to reveal the next UK energy price cap for Oct–Dec, with analysts warning bills could rise about 4% as Middle East conflict keeps wholesale prices elevated; separately, South Africa reported food inflation easing to a 16-year low, helping overall consumer inflation cool to 4.3% in July. Cyber & Infrastructure: Iran-linked hackers reportedly shut down a UK power plant for four days, with officials saying the wider grid stayed resilient—another reminder that consumer energy supply can be hit by geopolitics. Middle East Consumer Pressure: Iran warns neighbors against joining the US “economic war,” threatening “seismic” retaliation and pushing fears of tighter Gulf oil flows; in parallel, households across the region keep feeling the pinch as fuel and shipping risks feed into prices. Retail & Services in the Region: TravelDistro launched Türkiye’s API-first B2B travel marketplace, aiming to simplify ticketing, hotels, transfers and eSIM via one contract. Back-to-School Education: 51Talk rolled out Saudi-focused English courseware at the 2026 exhibition, localizing content for young learners. Food Trade: Egypt’s NFSA said it shipped 208,000 tons of food products to 184 countries in one week, led by vegetables and sweet potatoes. Smartphones: Counterpoint forecasts smartphone shipments in 2026 will fall over 14% as chip and memory costs push up prices.

Wealth & Finance: Commercial Bank in Qatar was named “Best Wealth Management Bank in Qatar” at the TAB Global Middle East Awards 2026, citing growth in advice-led wealth solutions and access to local and global asset classes. Energy Prices & Cost of Living: South Korea kept petroleum price caps at the same levels for a ninth straight round, as Middle East unrest pushed Brent back toward $93.8 by Aug. 20. Hormuz Shipping Reality Check: Iran’s SNSC secretary Mohsen Rezaei said the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until the US changes course, while US data claims military help has moved hundreds of millions of barrels and about 1,300 vessels since May. Food Exports: Egypt shipped about 320,000 tonnes of food products to 184 countries in two weeks, with thousands of consignments across vegetables, fruits and processed foods. Food Safety: Fromm recalled thousands of cans of wet dog food in the US and Canada due to possible metal contamination. Agriculture Trade: Tunisia’s olive oil exports jumped 55.3% to a record 368,000 tonnes in 2025/26’s first nine months, reaching $1.6bn. Consumer Sentiment: A Google MENA study says 41% of shoppers find buying harder than five years ago, with emotional connection increasingly driving brand loyalty.

Iran War & Consumer Costs: Trump again framed the Iran conflict as a “little detour” while the wider fallout keeps hitting household budgets, with fuel and everyday essentials pressured by Middle East-linked energy volatility. Fuel Price Pressure: In Portugal, drivers are urged to “fill up” before higher pump prices kick in after a government ISP discount change; in the UK, Tesco’s 5p-per-litre voucher push ends as motorists face rising forecourt costs. Sanctions & Trade Shock: The US escalated economic pressure on Iran with “economic D-Day” talk, while Somali piracy off Yemen hijacked an oil-products tanker—another reminder of how shipping risk can ripple into supply and prices. Food & Retail Hit: Back-to-school shoppers report “insane” costs as school-supply prices rise, and inflation-linked strain is also squeezing restaurant operators and consumers. Middle East Consumer Supply Chains: UAE Chinese-cuisine investment keeps expanding (200+ restaurants), supported by fast logistics and cold-chain imports. Regional Business & Events: Saudi Arabia’s IFAC furniture components show (Sept 1–3) spotlights demand for fittings, materials and semi-finished products as the kingdom’s build-out accelerates.

Middle East supply shock hits consumer-linked chemicals: India’s $7bn dye and pigment sector is feeling a “perfect storm” as the US-Iran conflict lifts feedstock and maritime logistics costs, squeezes natural gas allocations, and forces some plants to run at about 50% capacity, threatening margins and jobs. Retail display for luxury brands: DG Display Showcase will bring luxury jewelry and watch display solutions to Jewellery & Gem WORLD Hong Kong (Sept 16–20), pitching integrated retail display partnerships to global buyers. Iran pressure spills into everyday prices: Iran’s grocery shelves may look stocked, but families are struggling as unemployment rises and war-linked sanctions and blockade push food and medicine beyond reach. Shipping risk for oil products: Somali piracy surged again with the hijacking of the UAE-operated, US-sanctioned oil products tanker SIBU 1 in the Gulf of Aden, forcing a diversion toward Somalia. Crypto consumer buzz in the Gulf: Pepeto says it has crossed 41,000 presale buyers, while other crypto coverage points to fast-moving token launches and market hype. Energy restart interest: Pointe-a-Pierre refinery restart talks are gaining traction as demand for refined products rises, drawing investor interest.

Fuel & Energy Pressure: Vivo Energy topped Kenya’s fuel-tax payments with Sh64.28bn (23% of levies) even as VAT cuts were used to cushion pump prices amid the US-Iran and Hormuz shipping squeeze. Iraq Power Costs: US pressure is pushing Iraq to cut reliance on Iranian gas that has supported roughly a third to 40% of electricity generation, with purchases estimated at $4–$5bn a year. Shipping & Security: Two hijackings off Yemen and Somalia—one oil-products tanker and one weapons-carrying vessel—highlight renewed piracy risk near the Horn of Africa. Retail Convenience Tech: California Pizza Kitchen is partnering with T-ROC to roll out up to 1,000 automated kiosks nationwide over three years. Consumer Tech & Health: LumenStim seeks Kickstarter approval for a peroxide-free at-home teeth whitening system; Alvotech signed a licensing deal for biosimilars in the US and selected Asian markets. Tourism Snapshot: Türkiye saw foreign arrivals dip 0.3% in July to 7.1m, with Russia the top source. Market Watch: Oil held around $95/bbl as Middle East tensions keep a geopolitical premium in prices.